Securing success from start to finish – understanding apprenticeship withdrawal  

Despite recent improvements, apprenticeship achievement rates remain well below their level a decade ago, from 69% in 2013/14 to around 53% in 2021/22, before recovering to 61% in 2023/24.  

Understanding why apprentices withdraw from their programmes is critical to improving completion and ensuring apprenticeships deliver lasting benefits for learners. New research by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER), funded by Gatsby Charitable Foundation, examines the factors associated with apprenticeship withdrawal and identifies where policy and practice could better support those most at risk of leaving early. 

The report, Securing success from start to finish: Investigating factors associated with apprenticeship withdrawal, explores the drivers of withdrawal and considers policy options for reducing early exits. It examines how employer, provider and learner characteristics influence the likelihood of withdrawal, alongside the wage and employment benefits of completing an apprenticeship.  

The research shows that learners from disadvantaged backgrounds, those with lower prior attainment and those facing additional barriers are more likely to withdraw. Higher risks are also observed among learners:

• aged 16–17 and over 25
• without higher-level qualifications,
• with weaker GCSE English and maths attainment
• from black and mixed ethnic backgrounds
• with English as a second language.

Apprentices employed by smaller organisations or by employers new to apprenticeships face higher withdrawal rates, while training with more experienced providers is associated with lower risk. Withdrawal has lasting consequences. Three years after leaving their programme, learners who did not complete their apprenticeship earn less and are more likely to be unemployed than those who achieved.

“Completion matters because it signals real occupational competence and delivers lasting benefits for learners. What this research tells us is that improving completion cannot be reduced to increasing numbers alone. Recent reforms have succeeded in strengthening the quality and credibility of apprenticeships – those gains must not be lost in the pursuit of higher completion rates. As government works with employers to increase opportunities for young people, it will also need to ensure that employers and providers are supported to help apprentices – particularly those facing disadvantage – to complete high-quality programmes. Better use of data to understand where and why apprentices leave early will help target support accordingly. Any future reforms to assessment or programme design should be led by the evidence and tested carefully. A more evidence-led approach will be essential if we are to avoid unintended consequences for those at risk of withdrawal while maintaining the standards that give apprenticeships their value.”

Daniel Sandford Smith, Director of Programmes, Gatsby

Download Securing success from start to finish – full report

Download Securing success from start to finish – technical appendix